Possible scenario
Broader Probe Escalates
20% Chance
The police report could become one part of a larger opposition narrative about transparency, campaign conduct, and donor vetting. This scenario is less likely than a contained local dispute, but the timing after O'Keefe's foreign-funding allegation makes escalation plausible.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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