Possible scenario
Formal Republican Switch
35% Chance
John Fetterman converts the rhetorical break into a formal party change, giving Republicans a larger operating majority in the Senate. Because the GOP already holds 53 seats, the immediate policy impact is incremental rather than transformational.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Finance +0.4%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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