Possible scenario
Late Campaign Volatility
15% Chance
The forecast continues to move against Republicans, but late events prevent the race from settling into a clean Democratic-wave narrative. Debate moments, local scandals, economic data, or turnout uncertainty keep control of the House less certain than the generic ballot suggests.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.2%
- Industrials -0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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