Possible scenario
Escorted Partial Reopening
35% Chance
The most likely near-term outcome is a managed reopening under heavy naval protection rather than a clean return to normal traffic. The US Navy, UK Royal Navy, and Gulf partners have strong incentives to restore flows while avoiding a direct strike campaign inside Iran.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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