Possible scenario
Direct Military Escalation
25% Chance
A further tanker explosion or confirmed IRGC mining activity could push the US, UK, and Gulf states into limited kinetic action to protect shipping. Both sides may try to cap escalation, but the risk of missile, drone, or coastal battery retaliation would drive a larger cross-asset shock.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +7.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-3.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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