Possible scenario
Deal Passes Senate
40% Chance
Senate leaders use the election recess to rebuild the bipartisan coalition and move the permitting package shortly after lawmakers return. The most likely path is a compromise that keeps Republicans engaged on NEPA deadlines while giving Democrats enough assurances on offshore wind and transmission.
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.9%
- Energy +0.9%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.7%
- Industrials +0.3%
Tickers
- WMB+1.2%
- NEE+0.9%
- +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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