Possible scenario
Strikes Continue
45% Chance
Russia keeps arguing that attacks on Ukraine's power system are legitimate because the Trump proposal lacks written terms, verification, and reciprocal limits. Ukraine continues limited long-range strikes on Russian refining assets, but both sides avoid a step-change that would directly threaten NATO territory.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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