Possible scenario
Energy Escalation
15% Chance
The lack of defined truce terms allows both sides to broaden the target set. The most market-sensitive version is a Russian campaign against grid assets near western Ukraine or a Ukrainian strike that disrupts Russian refining, fuel exports, or pipeline logistics.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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