Possible scenario
Backlash Complicates Talks
18% Chance
The agreement triggers pushback from US lawmakers and regional partners who argue that releasing funds strengthens Tehran. The talks continue, but the diplomatic channel becomes more fragile and markets add a small geopolitical risk premium.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
- Finance -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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