Possible scenario
Security Risk Escalates
20% Chance
The tanker delays prove partly security-related, with insurers, shipowners, or Saudi authorities slowing operations after renewed Houthi threats. This would add a clearer Red Sea and Saudi infrastructure risk premium to crude, though still short of a regional crisis unless physical damage recurs.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.