Possible scenario
Exports Stay Constrained
25% Chance
A more persistent constraint emerges at Yanbu, possibly tied to incomplete repairs, cautious safety checks, or reduced nighttime operations after the Houthi strike. Saudi exports still flow through other routes, but near-term volumes fall short of the reported 2026 high.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
- Consumer Services -0.3%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.2%
- Industrials -0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.