Possible scenario
Limited Retaliatory Pressure
25% Chance
The U.S. and UK conclude Iran had operational involvement and answer below the threshold of open war. Likely tools include cyber action, interdictions of IRGC networks, regional force movements, and tighter sanctions enforcement.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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