Possible scenario
Direct Military Escalation
15% Chance
The Fairford incident becomes a trigger for overt U.S. or joint U.S.-UK military action against Iranian or IRGC-linked targets. This is less likely because both sides retain incentives to avoid a wider war, but the accumulated timeline makes a sharper response plausible.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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