Possible scenario
Grid Attrition Continues
45% Chance
Russia sustains a campaign against Kyiv's power generation and transmission nodes while Ukraine remains short of Patriot interceptors. The most likely near-term path is further rolling outages, emergency repairs, and incremental Western support rather than an immediate collapse of the capital's grid.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Energy +0.1%
Tickers
- RTX+1.0%
- GEV+1.0%
- LMT+0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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