Possible scenario
Escalation Risk Widens
20% Chance
Repeated ballistic attacks on Ukraine's grid increase the chance of spillover into NATO airspace or energy infrastructure near the EU border. This is less likely than continued contained strikes, but it carries the highest near-term market sensitivity.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.2%
- Energy +1.0%
- Consumer Services -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
- Utilities -0.2%
Tickers
- RTX+1.6%
- LMT+1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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