Possible scenario
Air Defense Surge
25% Chance
The second ballistic wave strengthens Ukraine's case for emergency interceptor transfers and additional air-defense batteries. Western governments are likely to debate a faster package, though stockpile constraints and domestic politics limit the scale.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
Tickers
- RTX+2.0%
- LMT+1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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