Possible scenario
Broader ICE Dilution
20% Chance
Germany converts the delay into a broader weakening of the 2035 combustion-engine phaseout, beyond a narrow e-fuel carveout. This would materially benefit incumbent European automakers with profitable combustion and hybrid platforms, while reducing the urgency of EV-only competition.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +2.1%
- Industrials +0.6%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.6%
- Energy +0.2%
Tickers
- TSLA-1.7%
- STLA+1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.