Possible scenario
Negotiations Turn Fractious
20% Chance
The details reveal significant unresolved disputes over rare-earth export licenses, AI-chip restrictions, or enforcement of fentanyl-related commitments. Markets price a higher chance that the tariff truce breaks down later in 2026.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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