Possible scenario
Limited Framework Emerges
38% Chance
USTR Jamieson Greer releases negotiation details showing a structured but limited US-China framework. The most likely outcome is a continuation of the truce with working groups on fentanyl enforcement, tariffs, AI export controls, and rare-earth supply rather than a full trade agreement.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.1%
- Industrials +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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