Possible scenario
Policy Support Reignites
20% Chance
The government’s first-time buyer equity-loan plan could offset the cooling shown in the latest price data. If take-up is strong, demand returns fastest in new-build and lower-priced regional markets, lifting sentiment toward developers.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.9%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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