Possible scenario
Demand Weakens Further
25% Chance
The 0.8% reading could mark the start of a sharper slowdown if buyers pull back before rate cuts are fully reflected in mortgage offers. High deposit requirements and stretched affordability would hit transaction volumes and developer reservations first.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.6%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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