Possible scenario
Cooling Soft Landing
45% Chance
The most likely path is a moderation rather than a downturn: the 0.8% growth reading signals cooling after the May surge, but employment and nominal wage growth keep forced selling limited. Gradual Bank of England easing and first-time buyer support prevent a sharp national price fall.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.