Possible scenario
Curbs Return Quickly
18% Chance
Russia’s domestic fuel balance remains fragile after refinery disruptions and previous shortages. If local diesel prices rise or supply tightens again, the Kremlin may restore export curbs despite US sanctions relief.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
- Industrials -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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