Possible scenario
Conditional Sanctions Easing
25% Chance
Washington eases restrictions enough to unlock some diesel exports but avoids a broad sanctions reversal. Russia tests the opening while buyers and banks wait for clearer guidance from OFAC, the EU and the UK.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.1%
Tickers
- VLO-0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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