Possible scenario
Prolonged Strait Closure
30% Chance
Iran sustains the closure and links reopening to its seven demands, while the United States refuses to lift its blockade of Iranian exports. Commercial shipping increasingly diverts around the Cape of Good Hope or waits at anchor, extending the spike in freight, insurance, and energy prices.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +7.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-4.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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