Possible scenario
Partial Convoy Reopening
35% Chance
Iran keeps its blockade threat in place but allows limited escorted traffic after Oman, Qatar, and European governments push for a pause. The United States maintains the export blockade on Iran but avoids new strikes while naval convoys test whether commercial traffic can resume.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.1%
- Industrials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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