Possible scenario
Negotiated Terms Framework
20% Chance
Back-channel diplomacy produces a framework that separates humanitarian trade and escrowed oil revenue from the broader U.S.-Iran dispute. Tehran can claim movement on several terms while Washington preserves sanctions leverage and reduces the chance of a direct naval war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +2.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+2.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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