Possible scenario
Capex Discipline
26% Chance
AI leaders respond to bubble comparisons by slowing the pace of incremental commitments without abandoning the strategy. The market begins distinguishing between projects with signed customers and speculative capacity built on future demand assumptions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.8%
- Utilities -0.6%
- Industrials -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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