Possible scenario
Capex Continues
42% Chance
The most likely outcome is that Bank of America's warning adds scrutiny but does not immediately derail the AI buildout. Microsoft, Oracle, Amazon, Alphabet and Stargate-linked backers continue projects already under contract, while investors demand clearer utilization and revenue milestones.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.6%
- Utilities +0.4%
- Finance -0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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