Possible scenario
AI Credit Stress
20% Chance
The BofA note accelerates investor focus on circular financing, vendor-backed demand and long-dated power commitments. This scenario does not require a systemic crisis, but it does imply higher risk premiums for AI-linked debt and equity-funded infrastructure plans.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.5%
- Utilities -1.3%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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