Possible scenario
Strike Is Confirmed
25% Chance
A later inspection confirms that a drone, debris, or munition damaged a commercial vessel close to Romanian waters. The escalation remains below an Article 5 threshold, but NATO and Romania would likely increase air policing, maritime patrols, and diplomatic pressure on Moscow.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.1%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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