Possible scenario
Fiscal Credibility Test
25% Chance
Investors and the Office for Budget Responsibility focus on whether the measure is fully funded, especially after Burnham’s earlier pledge of fiscal responsibility. The policy is not large enough to create a crisis, but it could revive concerns over the fiscal path if presented without offsets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.3%
- Utilities -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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