Possible scenario
Broader Energy Intervention
18% Chance
The VAT elimination becomes the first part of a wider household-energy package as Burnham tries to stabilize living costs before winter. This creates upside for household disposable income but increases regulatory uncertainty for suppliers, generators, and network operators.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -1.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.5%
- Energy -0.2%
- Finance -0.1%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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