Possible scenario
Security Crackdown
15% Chance
The federal government responds to further disorder by increasing police powers around Brussels-Midi, the EU quarter, and major transit nodes. This reduces immediate mobility risk but raises political tensions over policing, migration, and protest rights.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.7%
- Finance -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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