Possible scenario
Naval Escalation
20% Chance
Security conditions around Hormuz deteriorate further after additional attacks, seizures or mines threaten commercial vessels. The United States, Gulf states and European navies expand escorts, while Iran treats the operation as coercive and raises the risk of direct confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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