Possible scenario
Limited Corridor Deal
25% Chance
A narrow humanitarian and agricultural exemption is revived after pressure from food-importing states. Iran, Oman, Qatar, the UN and maritime insurers accept a monitored lane for fertilizer cargoes, but oil and broader shipping disputes remain unresolved.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.6%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.4%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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