Possible scenario
Blockage Persists
45% Chance
The most likely path is that the Strait of Hormuz remains unreliable for fertilizer cargoes while diplomacy stays stalled. Gulf ammonia, urea and phosphate shipments face delays, forcing importers to ration available supply and cut application rates for late-season and next-cycle crops.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +3.0%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -1.9%
- Energy +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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