Possible scenario
Regional War Expands
20% Chance
The readiness alert evolves into a broader confrontation involving Iranian proxies, U.S. regional bases, and Israeli targets. Oil-route security becomes the central market variable, especially around the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping lanes.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +5.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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