Possible scenario
Limited Strike Cycle
30% Chance
U.S. and Israeli forces conduct or support a limited strike package against Iranian air defense, missile, or command targets. Tehran retaliates in a measured way, avoiding an immediate full regional war but keeping escalation risk high.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.6%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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