Possible scenario
Deterrent Standoff Holds
35% Chance
Iran maintains maximum readiness while U.S. and Israeli aircraft activity remains limited to simulations, patrols, and signaling. Both sides avoid direct fire because the costs of another large strike cycle are high and command channels remain active through Qatar, Oman, and European intermediaries.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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