Possible scenario
Saudi Retaliation Intensifies
27% Chance
Riyadh concludes that deterrence requires a visible military response and launches strikes against Houthi launch facilities, radar sites, or storage depots in northern Yemen. The escalation is still geographically bounded, but the risk of further missile attacks against Saudi infrastructure increases.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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