Possible scenario
Contained Border Escalation
40% Chance
The most likely path is a limited propaganda-heavy confrontation, with Houthi media emphasizing Saudi casualties while Riyadh restricts confirmation and keeps the response measured. Attacks and counterclaims continue, but neither side immediately targets core oil infrastructure or declares a broader war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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