Possible scenario
Sustained Winter Siege
45% Chance
Russia follows Putin's order with repeated missile, drone, and glide-bomb strikes against electricity, water, heating, and rail nodes across Ukraine. Ukraine absorbs much of the campaign with Patriot, SAMP/T, NASAMS, and improvised grid repairs, but large cities face prolonged blackouts and displacement through the winter.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.4%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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