Possible scenario
Talks Restart Slowly
45% Chance
Turkey's proposals provide enough face-saving language for Washington and Tehran to resume indirect negotiations, likely through Oman with Ankara supporting deconfliction language. The most realistic near-term outcome is a process reset rather than a final nuclear or cease-fire deal, because enrichment limits, sanctions relief, and verification remain unresolved.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.8%
- Energy -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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