Possible scenario
Fragile De-escalation
20% Chance
Turkey succeeds in converting the proposals into a limited de-escalation package covering Gulf military activity, shipping assurances, and a path back to nuclear talks. This would be more meaningful than a mere meeting announcement, but still fragile because enforcement depends on U.S., Iranian, and proxy restraint.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +1.3%
- Energy -1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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