Possible scenario
Deadlock Continues
25% Chance
The proposals fail to bridge the core disputes after months of failed efforts: Iran wants strike relief and sanctions sequencing, while Washington demands nuclear concessions before broader de-escalation. This is a status-quo outcome, keeping a geopolitical premium in oil without triggering a sharp cross-asset move.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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