Possible scenario
Waiver Compromise Emerges
20% Chance
Lawmakers and the White House converge on a middle path that restricts Russian purchases but permits temporary waivers tied to fuel prices or national-security certifications. This outcome limits the political damage to Trump while preserving some congressional sanctions language.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Energy -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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