Possible scenario
Trump Deal Holds
30% Chance
House Republican leadership avoids a direct confrontation with Trump and keeps Fitzpatrick's bill from receiving a floor vote. The administration's diesel arrangement remains in place, easing near-term fuel supply anxiety but angering Ukraine hawks in both parties.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.4%
- Consumer Services +0.4%
- Industrials +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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