Possible scenario
Contained Local Unrest
45% Chance
The demolition triggers protests in East Jerusalem neighborhoods such as Silwan, Sheikh Jarrah and Jabal Mukaber, but Israeli police contain the unrest without a wider West Bank or Gaza escalation. This is the most likely outcome because demolitions and displacement in East Jerusalem have often produced localized confrontations rather than immediate regional market-moving crises.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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