Possible scenario
NATO Base Plot
15% Chance
Authorities determine the plot was specifically designed to disrupt US bomber deployments and NATO deterrence activity rather than to cause generic civilian harm. Washington and London tighten force protection at UK-hosted US bases, creating a short-lived geopolitical risk premium.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.7%
- Consumer Services -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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